DisplaySearch have recently reported on the growth opportunity of flexible displays. There is a wide agreement that flexible displays cover a growing variety of applications and form factors. Flexibility may refer to all, some, or only one attribute of the display application, manufacturing process, or materials used. DisplaySearch define flexible displays as those not only that can be bent or folded when active, but also those manufactured on flexible substrates and/or using a flexible manufacturing processes.
Since late 2013 a variety of of displays fabricated on plastic substrates have come to market, although foldable displays have not yet been fully reached their commercial potential. These first generation flexible displays offer the benefits of being very thin, light, and rugged. They also enable device design freedom with curved features.
The growth of cell phones and smart watches that use flexible displays, which are expected to ramp-up rapidly during 2015, which could result in an increase of almost 9X over 2014 market reveneus. This nearly exponential advance is being enabled by rapid flexible manufacturing capacity growth as both LG Display and Samsung increase capacity on current lines and Samsung begins production at its new flexible dedicated A3 line.
According to DisplaySearch over the short term, some market visibility based on capacity and production plans is to be expected. However, looking further into the future, long-range forecasting of the flexible display market is highly complicated for multiple reasons:- manufacturing technology required for the rapid growth of flexible displays is either unproven in mass production or has not been developed yet
- demand for flexible displays is highly price elastic
- although the technology is feasible, it will need to be cost competitive with conventional displays
DisplaysSearch say in 2016 and beyond, there is little visibility or certainly. To bound the problem of the number of possible market outcomes DisplaySearch looked at three scenarios according to technology developments and generation definitions outlined in one of the company's other report.
Their analysis suggested that under the likely demand scenario, flexible display revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 119% from 2013 and exceed $20 billion in 2021. Over the forecast range, and particularly beyond 2020, DisplsySearch assume there is more downside risk in the baseline forecast than potential in the upside forecast. The reason for this is the substantial amount of new manufacturing technology that not only needs to be developed, but must also meet cost targets and be ramped to high volume production in order for larger size applications to adopt flexible displays.
Finally, DisplaySearch said, "regardless of the remaining challenges and unknowns about how fast and how far the market will grow in the long run, our outlook remains optimistic. From a simple applications perspective, any current rigid FPD could be replaced by thin, light, unbreakable, and even low-cost flexible alternatives. Also, flexibility may create new applications, some of which we may not have even imagined yet. These are the factors that are generating so much intense interest in flexible displays now. In 2015, flexible display commercialization is expected to accelerate."
